Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, cycle 10, episode 5, prediction, random thoughts
First, a review of last week. Fatima with her advice-giving and mumbling about the other girls definitely made me want to throw the remote at the TV. The challenge winner was Katarzyna, just as I predicted. Fatima didn’t actually cry this episode (someone correct me if I’m wrong or missed something!)… still, 3 out of 4 isn’t bad. The top photo was Anya’s, which took me a bit by surprise. But – as I predicted – Amis was eliminated. Did I ever mention how completely predictable this show is?
So, this next episode is entitled “Top Model Takes it to the Streets,” and Benny Ninja helps the girls learn how to pose. Oh, and “one girl begins to feel the pressure of it all.” Shocking, I know. And their photo shoot will be a beauty shoot with brightly colored paint. Oh, and somewhere in there, Dominique calls Whitney a racist.
- Girl most likely to make me throw something at the TV: Fatima (4 out of 4 so far!)
- Girl most likely to be challenge winner: Katarzyna (who, from the preview, looked like she was doing really well), or Anya
- Girl most likely to cry this episode: Fatima (again… 3 out of 4 so far aren’t bad odds)
- Girl most likely to annoy Benny Ninja: Dominique
- Girl most likely to get criticized for her outfit in judging panel: Dominique
- Girl most likely to “begin to feel the pressure of it all”: Marvita (which, again, they pretty much gave away in the previews)
Anya – VERY UNLIKELY
Anya’s on her way to the final three, especially with those two first call-outs in the first three eliminations, so unless she really falls apart within the next few episodes, I’m pretty sure you can count on her sticking around. And with how much the judges adore her, there’s no way she’s going home this week.
Claire – VERY UNLIKELY
Claire’s also been sitting pretty the past few weeks, with call-outs consistently in the top five. She also seems to be scoring bonus points with the judges both with her fierce walk and her personality. She’s been so far staying out of the drama, but shining in the photo shoots and challenges.
Whitney – UNLIKELY
It seems that this plus-sized model may make it far. She’s been causing some stir in the house, and the argument last week seemed to be leading up to her major blow-out with Dominique this week. She has spunk, confidence, and provides drama to the house, so she makes for good TV… AND the judges have really been impressed with her photos as well as her general “presence” in the judging panel. So far, things are looking good for her.
Katarzyna – SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY
Her third-position call-out last week may have been enough to redeem her at least for awhile, and since there is little chance of her being called too risqué in this week’s photo shoot, I think she’s safe at least for this week. From the previews, she also seemed to be doing fairly well in the posing challenge, and in the photo shoot. As long as she remembers to put her hair in a bun for judging panel, I think she has a free pass this week.
Lauren – SOMEWHAT UNLIKLEY
Despite her great photo last week, the competition seems to be getting to her emotionally, which isn’t necessarily a good sign. The next episode or so are really going to be make-it-or-break-it weeks for Lauren, as the judges try to figure out if she’s making enough progress and a big enough transformation. She could remain determined and do very well (final three material!), or her interest could wane and fizzle out completely.
Stacey-Ann – POSSIBLY
Stacey-who? This girl has been making no impression on me at all. Since this is posing week, and she has been criticized in the past for her lack of posing skills, that may negatively effect her, but since from the previews she seemed to do at least alright on her photo shoot, so she may stay another week just because there’s someone worse than her “mediocre”ness.
Aimee – POSSIBLY
Despite the fact that her first photos were highly praised, the editing last week set her up for a huge fall. She was portrayed as a girl with insecurities, dwindling self-confidence, a lack of energy, and a mediocre photo – not good. She’s definitely in danger this week; I could see her in the bottom two this week for sure if she doesn’t shape up quick.
Fatima – SOMEWHAT LIKELY
She seemed to take her bottom-two last week fairly hard, so either it’ll be a good dose of humble pie for her, or it’ll be the last straw before a complete breakdown. She’s yet to ever get a top-five photo, and we all know she didn’t score any points with Miss Jay or Mr. Jay last week. For some reason Tyra still seems to cut her more slack than the other girls, but she may not get by very much longer just because of her impressive bone structure.
Marvita – SOMEWHAT LIKELY
Like Lauren, Marvita seems to have been somewhat of a “project” for Tyra, and was possibly thrown into the mix to create drama in the house. While Lauren’s physical and emotional transformation is overshadowing Marvita’s transformation, Fatima’s abrasive personality is also overshadowing Marvita’s “dynamite-waiting-to-explode” potential. Her photos have been fairly middle-of-the-road, and the judges may soon run out of reasons to keep her around.
Dominique – QUITE LIKELY
Send this girl home already, PLEASE! Her photos have not been good, her personality drives me nuts, according to the previews, she’s now causing issues in the house, and she still just doesn’t seem to get it. Last week at the photo shoot she did well and Mr. Jay really commended her on taking his advice seriously, but it seems to me that may have been a fluke. They’ve been building her story for the past few weeks as if they’re leading up to this dramatic elimination, and I must say, I’d be glad to see it come to fruition.
Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, cycle 10, stats
It’s once again time for the weekly stats post. Any statistic-haters out there, skip this one.
PART 1: THIRD PHOTOSHOOT
The call-out order for the third photoshoot was as follows:
Comparing this call-out order with the third call-out order of other cycles, I’ve discovered these patterns:
- 5th, 8th, and 9th called in the third photoshoot (Dom, Marvita, Aimee) have gone on to win twice each out of the previous nine cycles… not a strong correlation, but still…
- 1st, 4th, and 8th place girls in the third photoshoot (Anya, Claire, Marvita) have gone on to the final three four times each out of the previous nine cycles, which is a somewhat strong correlation, but definitely not a guarantee.
- Never has one of the top four girls in the third photoshoot (Anya, Whitney, Kat, Claire) been eliminated in the next episode.
- The most likely position to be eliminated next? 7th or 10th (Lauren or Fatima)
PART 2: CUMULATIVE SCORE
The following stats are based on the first three photo call-out orders. (See point system explanation in last week’s stat post)
After the third call-out, here are the averages:
1. Anya (3.0)
2. Claire (3.3)
3. Lauren (4.0)
4. Whitney (4.3)
5. Aimee (5.7)*
6. Marvita (5.7)*
7. Stacey-Ann (6.7)**
8. Katarzyna (6.7)**
9. Fatima (7.3)
10. Dominique (8.7)
From using the same formula with previous cycle’s call-out orders, I’ve noticed these patterns:
- The 1st, 4th, and 5th place girls at this point (Anya, Whitney, and Aimee) have gone on to win in 2/9 of the previous cycles each
- The 1st place girl at this point (Anya) has gone on to the final three in 2/3 of the previous cycles.
- The 4th place girl at this point (Claire) has gone on to the final three in 4/9 of the previous cycles
- The 1st place girl at this point (Anya) has never been the next girl eliminated
- Claire has managed to stay in the top five for the past three photo shoots. This was accomplished previously by Adrianne C1, Mercedes and April C2, Lisa C5, AJ Michelle and Anchal C6, Brittany and Felicia C7, and Jenah Heather Lisa and Sarah C9.
- Anya has had two first call-outs in the first three episodes. This was accomplished previously by Shannon C1, Jaslene C8, and Jenah C9 – all girls that made it to the final three.
- Dominique and Fatima both were in the bottom two in one of the first three eliminations. The only competitor to ever be in the bottom two in the first three episodes and come back to win it all was Saleisha C9. All other winners have at least made it to the final six before being in the bottom two.
PART III: PREVIOUS CYCLE COMPARISON
Here, I compared the cycle 10 girls’ call-out averages with those of previous cycle girls after the third elimination of their cycles. It should also be noted that (besides Saleisha C9), none of the winners has had a call-out average of less than 5.0 at this point.
Whitney = Kesse C1, Mercedes C2*, Yoanna C2**, Shandi C2*, Yaya C3*, Nicole C3, Nnenna C6, Brooke C6 (avg. 4.0th place)
Claire = Camille C2, Nik C5*, Danielle C6**, Michelle C7, Felicia C8X (avg. 4.4th place)
Aimee = C4, Sara C6, CariDee C7**, Renee C8*, Diana C8 (avg. 4.4th place)
Marvita = (same as Aimee’s)
Stacey-Ann = Nicole C5**, MollieSue C6, Dionne C8 (avg. 4.7th place)
Katarzyna = (same as Stacey-Ann’s)
Lauren = Elyse C1*, Rebecca C4, Lisa C5 (avg. 5.7th place)
Anya = April C2, AJ C7, Lisa C9 (avg. 6.3th place)
Fatima = Jaeda C7, Megg C7X, Jael C8 (avg. 7.3th place)
Dominique = Noelle C4X, Gina C6X, Whitney C8 (avg. 9.3th place)
X eliminated in following round
PART IV: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
So what does this all mean? (Please note: this is just playing with numbers… not necessarily my actual predictions… obviously Aimee wouldn’t be able to win if she didn’t at least make it to the final three!)
MOST LIKELY TO BE NEXT ELIMINATED:
Fatima (followed by Dominique & Lauren)
MOST LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO FINAL 3:
Anya, Marvita, and Claire (followed by Lauren & Aimee)
MOST LIKELY TO WIN:
Aimee (followed by Marvita and Anya)
Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, favorites, randomness, Top Model, update
This cycle is definitely keeping me on my toes which my favorites list. Claire and Katarzyna continue to do well in the competition and avoid doing things that annoy me, so they continue to be my top two. Of all the girls in the house, those two (along with Lauren, Anya, and Stacey-Ann) seem to pretty much stay out of the drama and bickering, which definitely makes them seem more mature and worthy of winning.
Lauren surprised me this week. I was glad that Jaslene gave her that much-needed wake-up call; this week at the photo shoot she really applied herself and produced what I feel is the strongest photo yet this cycle. Bonus points for Lauren… and for the first time since pre-show, she’s back in my top three.
Whitney also continues to wow the judges, and I appreciated that she stuck up for Aimee during the War of the Shower this week. Aimee herself, however, seems to be getting set up for a fall. I’m sensing some Brittany C8 vibes from her attitude – she doesn’t seem to be getting along with many of the other girls, they don’t seem to understand her, and she doesn’t do a particularly good job standing up for herself… I sense a major emotional breakdown on the horizon.
Anya also impressed me this week; she did a great job on the photo shoot and her makeover isn’t bothering me as much this week as it was last week. Stacey-Ann has a great lack of screentime, so I don’t really have much of an opinion about her this week.
Despite the fact that she was eliminated weeks ago, Atalya ended up moving up, basically because of my growing dislike for Dominique, Marvita, and Amis. While I initially found Dom’s self-confidence refreshing, after weeks of being on the bottom, she’s still insisting that she’s an amazing, high-fashion diva and that she’s in the forerunning of the competition. So, now I’m wondering if she’s delusional, or just a bit slow to catch on to things. Either way, it’s getting a bit old… as is her look. I don’t think her “new” haircolor this week made her any less soccer-mom-looking than her ‘do last week.
Marvita has been portrayed as being a very one-dimensional character… “I’m calloused and tough because I had a hard life.” Her photos all look the same to me, and there is nothing about her personality which draws me to her. I really don’t know what the judges see in her.
I was glad that Amis went home. She really was just there for the experience, which is fine for her, but the attention-getting tactics, constant flightiness, and ridiculous talking-just-to-hear-her-own-voice were wearing on my nerves.
Fatima dropped a few points in my book for a number of reasons. First off, her “enlightened” logic about how they should all gang up on Whitney instead of Aimee because “Whitney likes to start a lot of things.” (Because obviously it was Whitney that called Allison’s butt big last week, told Amis she acted like a clown the week before, flung her arm out at Marvita after the first fashion show, and called the black girls at the casting “ghetto.” Yup… must’ve been Whitney.) Also, the whole shoe thing at the fire house was just stupid; she should know better than to get on Miss Jay’s bad side – he’s a judge for goodness sake!
Stats coming soon. Hopefully I’ll be able to dig up some more episode descriptions for you, too.
Tags: ANTM, controversy, green, photo shoot, thoughts, Top Model
At the risk of sounding preachy… what was up with that meat photo shoot? After the homeless photo shoot, I’ll admit that I didn’t have particularly high expectations of this one, but the whole concept ended up being far more disgusting and far less meaningful than I even expected.
What I expected was some sort of mediocre, half-hearted political viewpoint; but I’m not even sure if this shoot was supposed to be pro-meat or anti-meat? Neither? Both? It certainly didn’t make me want to go out and eat a steak (if I were the type of girl that liked red meat anyways). On the contrary, it made me want to “ralph” (as Claire so succinctly put it). It seemed to be saying that meat was fashionable to wear, much as the first photoshoot seemed only to be saying that homeless people can be trendy and fierce, too… or something.
And whatever happened to being “green”? First, we have a giant, gas-guzzling limo; next we have pounds and pounds of meat which is no longer suitable to be used – how wasteful! Comments? Thoughts? Suggestions about what they could do with the meat that was worn (besides just throwing it away)?