Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, episode 6, speculation, statistics
PART I: FIFTH PHOTO SHOOT
Call-out order for episode 6:
Patterns from previous cycles:
- The bottom girl not eliminated (Claire) has never gone on to win, but often makes it to the final five: Elyse C1, Camille C2, Ann C3, Nik C5, Jade C6.
- One of the girls in the top four of this shoot (Whitney, Katarzyna, Fatima, Lauren) always goes on to win
- The fourth place girl in this shoot (Lauren) has most often gone on to win: Yoanna C2, Nicole C5, Danielle C6, CariDee C7, Jaslene C8
- The first-place girl in this shoot (Whitney) has gone on to the final three in 5 of 9 previous cycles
- The fourth and sixth-place girls in this shoot (Lauren & Dominique) have gone on to the final three in 6 of 9 previous cycles.
- The fifth place girl in this shoot (Anya) has most often been eliminated next, in 5 of the 9 previous cycles.
PART II: CUMULATIVE SCORE
After the fifth elimination, here are the average call-outs:
1. Anya (3.6)
2. Claire & Lauren (4.2)
4. Whitney (4.6)
5. Stacey-Ann (5.6)
6. Katarzyna (5.8)
7. Fatima (6.6)*
8. Dominique (6.8)*
*no winner has had lower than a 6.2 average at this point in her cycle
Patterns found in previous cycles:
- The winner is always in the top 5 at this point (Anya, Claire, Lauren, Whitney, Stacey-Ann)
- The second-place girl at this point (Claire/Lauren?) most often has gone on to win, in 3 of 9 previous cycles
- The first and second-place girls at this point (Anya, Claire/Lauren?) have gone on to the final three in 5 of 9 previous cycles
- The sixth-place girl at this point (Katarzyna) is most often eliminated next, in 4 of 9 previous cycles
- The second and fifth place girls at this point (Claire/Lauren, Stacey-Ann) have never been the next eliminated.
- Anya and Lauren have made it through the first five eliminations without a bottom-four appearance. This feat was previously accomplished by Mercedes & Sara C2, Eva Nicole & Toccara C3, Christina & Tatiana C4, Nik Lisa & Jayla C5, Danielle C6, Michelle C7, Brittany C8, and Jenah C9.
- Fatima is the only remaining girl who has not yet had a top-two photo. Other girls to make it this far in their cycle without one: Robin C1, Toccara & Norelle C3, Michelle C4, Bre & Kim C5, Leslie C6, Amanda C7, Sarah & Whitney C8, Chantal & Ambreal C9.
PART III: PREVIOUS CONTESTANTS
Cycle 10 girls compared with girls of other cycles at this point in their respective cycles.
Anya = Adrianne C1**, April C2, Jayla C5 (avg 3rd place)
Claire = Yoanna C2**, Amanda C3*, Nicole C3 (avg 3.3rd palce)
Lauren = same as Claire’s
Katarzyna = Cassie C3x, Keenya C4*, Nicole C5**, Brooke C6, Amanda C7 (avg 4.8th place)
Stacey-Ann = Catie C2x, Toccara C3, Naima C4**, Kahlen C4*, Tatiana C4 (4.8th place)
Fatima = Michelle C4, Kim C5, Natasha C8* (avg 4.3th place)
Whitney = Sarah C2, Christina C4 (5.5th place)
Dominique = Norelle C3, Sara C8x (6.5th place)
x – next to go
* – top 3
** – winner
PART 4: PUTTING IT TOGETHER
By the numbers… not actual predictions!
Most likely to be eliminated next:
Katarzyna (followed by Dominique)
Most likely to make it to the top 3:
Lauren, Claire & Anya (followed by Stacey-Ann & Whitney)
Most likely to win:
Lauren (followed by Anya)
Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, cycle 10, episode 6, favorites
As you can see, Claire is still my top pick. I had to do some thinking about that placement, since I’m not sure anymore about the probablility of her actually winning it. Certainly past winners have gotten into catfights at times, but the level of Claire-hate among the online forums is at an all-time high, and you would think that the editors wouldn’t have portrayed her like that if they wanted everyone to agree upon her as the eventual winner. Of course, then again, it’s been shown time and time again that what the fans think doesn’t really matter much anyways… so, maybe she’s till got a good chance. Regardless, I think that she was justified in pretty much everything she said/did last episode… really, Dom had it a long time coming and they’ve been plenty patient with her up until this point. And as far as her last photo goes, I didn’t think it was that bad at all, and if they didn’t want it to look hokey and contrived, they shouldn’t have given her such a ridiculous costume. But, enough about her for now.
Katarzyna has been impressing me more and more lately, and I guess you could kind of consider her as tied for first with Claire. She’s also one, though, that I don’t necessarily think is going to win (due to Tyra’s tendancy to eliminate the strongest competitors too soon). I also like that the eliminated girls always have nice things to say about her, and I think she’s going to totally rock her new haircut.
Whitney and Lauren keep flip-flopping for me… and honestly, I really disliked both of their photos this week. I think both have a fairly good chance of making final three, at least, and I’m really interested to see Lauren blow up at Fatima next week.
Anya and Stacey-Ann both impressed me this week, but in different ways. I thought Anya did great at the challenge — I wasn’t surprised that she won — and though I wasn’t impressed with her photo this week, we did get to see more of her personality/attitude, and I really appreciated her laid-back calmness in the midst of all the drama. I really liked Stacey-Ann’s picture and thought it was really underrated. I was glad to see her trying out different poses, and thought she should have at least been given props for that, even if they did seem a bit “posey” still.
Fatima moved up a bit, but only because Dominique moved way down my list of favorites. Fatima can be an obnoxious instigator of drama, but Dominique’s self-centered, “it’s-all-about-me,” and plain delusional personality is such a huge negative that it’s hard to appreciate her photos, even when she does pull off a decent one. And did I mention she’s completely delusional???
Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, cycle 10, episode 6, house of pain
YAY! Thanks so much to w9c53nfj on YouTube for finally, FINALLY getting episode 6 uploaded! Unfortunately, in the meantime, I accidentally ran across the call-out order… makes it not-so-much fun watching it.
So, we start out in the Tyra-limo… talking about how amazing Aimee‘s skin is. And she gets the very-first-going-home-next-confessional (as if we didn’t know already).
And… Claire talks on the phone with her husband and talks about how much she misses her husband and baby… which is never a good sign. And they show her pumping milk… (gee… thanks.) And we see some product placement for Sprint. And Claire talks more about daughter (though you can tell it was from a previous week… I hate when they do that.
CATFIGHT!! Claire (and Anya & Lauren & Whitney) vs. Dominique
Dominique‘s alarm keeps going off… she’s confused, because seriously… setting an alarm clock is harder than quantum physics. Claire gets upset because Dom isn’t doing anything about it and actually ends up calling her a bitch. (Wow… didn’t see that one coming from our oh-so-sweet,-mature,-and-motherly-type Claire). Anya gets involved because Dominique is delusional and thinks that Claire is making the whole thing up. Or something. Anya is hilariously calm about the whole thing… scoring major points with me.
Dominique starts up again (by the way, what is that THING on Dom’s head?)… and makes some reference to “do you call your husband a bitch when you’re in an argument.” Wait… what? First of all, men aren’t generally called “bitches.” And secondly, Claire has a loving, committed relationship (we would assume) with her husband. She does NOT have the same with Dom. So… how can you compare the two? And Claire makes the comment, “At least I have a husband… iokay, you wanna get dirty and low?” Touche, Claire, touche. If Claire’s home life is fair game for critique, why not Dom’s? It’s kind of the plank/speck thing… don’t try to take out the speck in your neighbor’s eye until you’ve taken the plank out of your own. Lauren points out they’re having a communication problem and Dom jumps on her. Lauren completely blows up, which is hilarious. And somewhere in there, Whitney calls Dom trash. And then Dom says that they’re ganging up on her because she’s so strong. And I have a really good laugh at that joke before realizing she was serious. And she cries to her mommy. And I’m just WAITING for her mom to make some comment about how she’s a “daughter of the throne.”
“You ladies are sick! But I’ll help you get better… love, Tyra”
Um… anyone else get totally creeped out by this Tyra-mail?
Tyra is driving the cab. Screaming ensues.
Then they get dressed up in these ridiculous-looking red outfits (though they are better than the ones they had last cycle). And Tyra tries to teach them to “work their fierceness.”
And Tyra trips and sprains her ankle… or not. She says she did it to show them how to “pose with pain… Pain, but beauty.” Anyone else think it was horribly tacky that she had them “act out” menstrual pains. Sorry, but I know women with endometriosis, and I can tell you one thing… there’s nothing “beautiful” about those cramps.
So, they do a pose-off. They all look ridiculous… obviously following Tyra’s example.
“I’ve been aching to tell you tonight’s lesson was actually a challenge. Guess who posed the fiercest? Congratulations, ANYA! You just won a one-on-one photo shoot with NIGEL BARKER!”
I’ll bet it’s a lie. I’ll bet that whatever they had actually planned for the challenge fell through at the last minute. Heh.
So Anya‘s prize was getting to pose nude… because nude is “timeless.” Um… I guess you could say that.
And Aimee was glad she didn’t win because she didn’t think she was ready for that. Well, then I guess it’s a good thing she wasn’t in cycle 6, where they had the nude photo shoot to get into the finals! (And why are these girls still always so surprised about nude photo shoots?)
More drama in the house! Dominique was sick and couldn’t fall asleep, and Whitney, Claire, and Lauren are all talking about Dominique while she’s sitting there, trying to sleep. And Dom called them monkeys. Clever analogy, actually, but I still say Dom had it coming.
Being a top model is a pretty good gig, if you can get it. Love, Tyra
So, for their photo shoot, they have to embody different genres of music… with Russel James as the photographer (ugh.. not a fan of his… but that’s another story for another day).
Highlights of the photoshoot:
- Claire and Anya get the most ridiculous costumes ever that look absolutely NOTHING like the genre they are trying to portray. What on earth WERE the wardrobe people thinking!?!?!?
- Aimee bombs her shoot… Claire doesn’t do very well either… and the photographer said he became very frustrated with Stacey-Ann
Tomorrow you will meet with the judges… blah blah blah
Aimee and Claire express concerns about their photo shoot… gee… wonder who’s going to be in the bottom two? Lauren expresses her anxiety as well, but that’s pretty much the norm for her.
So… a few notes about judging….
- I get TOTALLY creeped out by the whole Nigel/Tyra thing when she goes off about how hot/sexy he is… maybe someone should tell her that he’s married.
- I do NOT think that those were actually the best photos for Claire, Aimee, and Stacey-Ann. The judges had critiques for each of them that they had done in other shots! Miss Jay said that Claire’s photo would have been great with a bright smile… and towards the end of the shoot there WAS one where she had a bright smile… why did they not pick that one???
Regardless, here are the photos… from my favorite to my least favorite:
Kat – The facial expression, the stance, the pose, the whole thing really personified emo in my mind. I could totally see her on an album cover like that. And the best part is, it still looks “pretty.”
Stacey-Ann – Up until this point, I’ve thought her photos were overrated. This one, though, I think is really quite great (except of course, for the fact that she’s used that same facial expression in half of her photos). She went outside the box and used a completely different pose that really makes her body look like it’s moving to the music.
Claire – After her rough, tough shots the last two weeks (due, in part, I’m sure, to her new makeover) it was shocking to see her all cutesy. I would have loved to see her long legs, but on the other hand, I do think that this pose works for her genre. I’m not sure what the wardrobe people were thinking with that pink skirt (especially coordinated with that red bandana), but I think it turned out really pretty.
Dominique – I’m not a fan of hers at all, but even I have to admit this is a decent picture that personifies folk quite well. The weird shoulder-stance does give the illusion of movement, and I just wish that her face didn’t look so… exactly the same as every other picture she’s taken on this show.
Aimee – Sure, it’s a bit boring, and her eyes don’t quite seem to be focused on anything, but it’s not a horrible photo I guess. I’m really quite indifferent to it.
Lauren – Talk about putting a girl outside her element! It’s pretty obvious that Lauren has no idea what pop stars are supposed to do. She doesn’t look like a pop star and she barely looks like a model. Plus, I find her pose boring and slightly awkward (in the bad way, not the good way.)
Whitney – So here’s a girl that ends up with the absolute best and she seems to me to really miss the mark. Perhaps I’m harder on her because she’s portraying my favorite genre. but D’arcy Wretzky she is NOT. Where’s the love for the music? Where’s the power chords? Where’s the angst? I was horribly disappointed.
Fatima – This pose made me laugh out loud. She looks completely ridiculous. I don’t think I need to point out the irony of the high heels or the pink thing tied around her thigh. And the rest of her just goes so overboard on all the heavy-metal clichés (KISS tongue, the hand signal, guitar flung around her shoulder, etc.) that it just ends up looking like a bad parody.
Anya – My first thought when I saw this picture was “I didn’t know mimes played music.” Because, yes… that’s exactly what I thought she was portraying. Besides the wardrobe crew getting the punk style completely wrong (and believe me, I would know), what kind of pose is that? Her front arm looks twisted out of its socket and unnaturally long, whereas her back arm is completely hidden. The legs are somewhat model-esque, but nothing like a punk star. Has this girl never been to a punk concert? Anya, girl, go buy yourself a Clash CD and some tickets to see Sonic Youth. You’ll thank me.
So, here’s their call-out order:
1. Whitney (I love her, but this pic was overrated)
2. Katarzyna (woo!)
3. Fatima (TOTALLY overrated)
7. Stacey-Ann (who totally deserved a higher placement)
Aimee & Claire were bottom two… and Aimee started crying right away. R&B was one of the easiest? Huh? And they called Claire’s stoic and blase. But, Claire’s photo was called and I’ve never seen any girl jump up to grab her photo so quickly. Does Tyra have something against Claire? First the hideous pink skirt… then the bottom two… and even after calling her name, Tyra seemed unnecessarily skeptical about Claire’s insistence that she can do something light and happy. What was once a “winner’s edit” has within the course of a single episode turned into a “is she going to make it another week” edit. Not good!
Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, cycle 10, episode 6, house of pain
Let’s review last week’s predictions.
Last week’s “Girl Most Likely to Make Me Throw Something at the TV” actually was NOT Fatima as I had predicted. It was Dominique, with her antagonizing and diva attitude. In fact, with Dominique doing so well at the photo shoots and Fatima not doing so hot, I think that Dom may actually end up in that top-four spot normally reserved for antagonists such as Bianca C9, Renee C8, Melrose C7, Jade C6, etc. – which I had previously assumed would be reserved for Fatima this cycle.
The challenge winner last week was Claire, which was a pleasant surprise. Anya and Katarzyna did very well, too.
There was no crying in the last episode! Huh? I don’t remember anyone crying! Not even Fatima!
No one got criticized (at least on air) about their outfits in judging panel by the judges. I, however, highly criticized a few of them, including Dominique’s receptionist outfit.
And, obviously, Marvita was the girl that “began to feel the pressure of it all,” which, according to post-show interviews wasn’t because she felt defeated – she was just having a bad day. As we all know, however, Tyra NEVER has a bad day, so Marvita obviously wasn’t cut out for America’s Next Tyra Banks.
This episode is entitled “The House of Pain,” obviously as a joke on Tyra teaching them to pose in the dance studio. In the preview, Tyra plays on this by telling each girl to pose as if a part of her body were in pain. Uh-huh. Also, we’re told that one girl (who the previews have already revealed) “gets to” work with Nigel in a nude photo shoot for the challenge prize. And, as usual, there is drama in the house. This time, centering around a girl who doesn’t know how to turn her alarm clock off in the early morning hours.
- Girl most likely to make me throw something at the TV: Dominique
- Girl most likely to cry this episode: Aimee (followed closely by Fatima)
- Girl most likely to annoy a judge or photographer: Fatima
- Girl most likely to get criticized for her look in judging panel: Katarzyna (as usual, too sexy!)
Predictions at this point are going to get tougher and tougher, basically because it is at this point that the “fillers” have mostly all been sent home and the judges’ reasons for eliminations get more and more “out there.” For instance, this was the week in cycle 7 where AJ, who had been leading ALL the other girls in call-outs, got sent home for not being invested enough in the competition (although obviously she was still invested enough to continue getting top-five photos up until that point!) It’s also at this point in the competition that Xiomara C2 is eliminated, despite the fact that she had gotten the 2nd place photo the week before. In C6, MollieSue was eliminated at this point, which was a frustration to many fans, especially now seeing her gorgeous post-show work. The main point: No one is “safe” anymore. A bad photo, a discontented look, a misspoken phrase, and they could be the next one to go. But, regardless, here are my predictions:
Anya – UNLIKELY
As one of the girls tied for the top position, her elimination at this point would be exactly akin to AJ’s, and I doubt the judges would make that error again. And after seeing Tyra raving about her poses in the preview, there’s no way she’d go home. Even if she produced a roll of film worse than Lluvy’s Pisces photo, she’d end up in the bottom two, but get saved for her prior consistency and “potential.”
Claire – UNLIKELY
Claire and Anya are tied for the top position right now, with Anya having more first call-outs, but Claire having more consistent phots – none below fifth place in the call-outs. An elimination at this point is unlikely, since it seems for the most part that the judges still like her and feel she has a lot of potential and drive.
Lauren – UNLIKLEY
If she were to perform poorly, I could see them throwing her in the bottom two to test her drive and desire to be there, but I don’t think Tyra & the gang are quite done with her transformation yet. Plus, this photoshoot (according to the preview on cwtv) seems to be some sort of music/rock theme, which seems right up her alley.
Dominique – SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY
Of all the girls, Dominique has made the most improvement in the judges’ eyes, going from the bottom in the first two eliminations to the top in the past two (much like Brittany C4, Jade C6, and Jael C8, who all made it overseas). Tyra & the gang like seeing improvement, and Dominique keeps impressing them despite herself… I see an “antagonist top-four” spot for her.
Stacey-Ann – POSSIBLY
She is improving from week to week, going from the end of the pack, to the middle, to – just last week – the top. The judges seem impressed with her improvement, which is a good thing, but once you’ve hit the top, it’s hard to keep improving and not just plateau. Norelle C3, Furonda C6, Natasha C7, and Bianca C9 all had a similar progression in the first episodes and all made it quite far, so I think we’ll see Stacey-Ann around for awhile yet.
Whitney – POSSIBLY
Her elimination or lack thereof is probably going to be based solely on whether or not Tyra wants to let a plus-sized model make it overseas. In the first few episodes, I thought she had a chance of being treated on an equal plain as the other girls, but the ridiculous accusation last week that she wasn’t really invested in the competition just reiterated to me the fact that Tyra really does EXPECT the plus-sized models to lose their drive and self-confidence, and drop off around the halfway point.
Katarzyna – SOMEWHAT LIKELY
The negative critiques keep piling up, and she was back in the bottom four last week, even after the previous week’s top-three photo. I thought her photo was good, and the only real comments on it were about her eyes, which the judges said they loved… so why was she in the bottom four? It seems that the judges are either out to get her, or that they’re breaking her down for a miraculous and fantastic comeback (in the style of Saleisha, who did poorly throughout the first part of her cycle as well).
Fatima – QUITE LIKELY
She’s gone from middle-of-the-road callouts to bottom-three call-outs, making her the statistically weakest model. With Dominique providing all the drama a reality TV producer could ask for, their need to keep Fatima around is becoming less and less. Plus, we haven’t heard about her circumcision or her rough life growing up in Somolia in quite awhile, which means they’re now downplaying her sob story… possibly so we don’t feel so bad for her when she’s eliminated?
Aimee – QUITE LIKELY
Aimee has gone from having top five photos in the first two episodes to bottom five photos in the last two – not a good sign at all. She also was given a ridiculous negative critique last week about being too versatile, which seems to me that Tyra & the gang are for whatever reason just trying to think of bogus reasons to eliminate her. Add that onto the fact that Tyra said she was only giving her a B+ on her posing, and that she wants A+s… it doesn’t look too good for our sweet little ex-Mormon.
Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, cycle 10, episode 6, house of pain
The Top Models Impress Tyra with Poses
Well, some of them do, anyways. Anya, Whitney, and Dominique definitely do… Stacey-Ann, Fatima and Kat do… but Aimee certainly doesn’t, and Tyra tells Claire that she needs to remember her face.
Dominique Gets a Top Model Earful
So the catfight this week seems to revolve around Dominique (big surprise) vs. Lauren, Whitney and Claire. Let’s see… my absolute least favorite girl vs. my three favorites… wonder who I’m going to be rooting for?
Anya Gets Nude with a Top Model Judge
So… it looks like Anya wins the challenge, and gets a special one-on-one nude photo shoot with Nigel as the photographer. Ummm AWKWARD!
Tags: America's Next Top Model, ANTM, cycle 10, episode 6, episode 7, episode 8, recap episode, spoiler, Top Model
Episode 6: House of Pain (airing 3/26/08)
Tyra surprises the girls in a dance studio and teaches them how to work their fierceness while posing at the end of a runway. During a pose-off in front of Tyra, one girl earns the opportunity to work with judge/photographer Nigel Barker while posing nude. Drama and voices escalate in the house when three ladies gang up against one girl who doesn’t know how to turn her alarm clock off in the early morning hours.
My commentary on this episode here.
Episode 7: If You Can’t Make it Here, You Can’t Make it Anywhere (airing 4/2/08)
THE MODELS TEAM UP FOR GO-SEES AND HIT BROADWAY — The models are spilt into two teams for go-sees with Shoshanna Lonstein, Pamella Roland and Stacey Bendit from Alice & Olivia. The girls join Mr. J for a photo shoot on Broadway at the Fuerza Bruta show and find out they will be shot through a plastic sheet while laying face down in water. One model is injured, while another gets a second makeover at the shoot
My commentary on this episode here.
Episode 8: Top Model Confidential (airing 4/9/08)
NEVER-BEFORE-SEEN FOOTAGE FROM CYCLE 10 A look at never-before-seen footage of the cycle 10 contestants that includes the ladies battling with posing instructor Benny Ninja and his team, New York City firefighters practicing their runway struts and contestant wrestling matches
Yawn. I really dislike the recap episode. I think it’s a huge waste of a time slot. Perhaps it’s because I’m the kind of person that’s really more interested in the photo shoots and eliminations than in the who-gets-along-with-whom and who-hates-whom in the house. Some drama sometimes can be fun, but goodness gracious, I certainly don’t need a whole episode of it. And wouldn’t it make more sense to have the recap episode closer to the END of the season? I mean, really… at this point, only seven episodes have aired. Blah.