Statistics, Statistics, and Some Speculation!

March 8, 2008 at 3:42 pm | Posted in Aimee, Amis, Anya, Claire, Dominique, Fatima, Katarzyna, Lauren, Marvita, speculation, StacyAnn, statistics, Whitney | Leave a comment
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Who loves statistics!?!?!  If you do, this is the blog post for you.  If not… you may want to just skip this one.

PART 1: SECOND PHOTOSHOOT
First, we’ll take a look at the second call-out.  The order was as follows:
1. Lauren
2. Marvita
3. Aimee
4. Claire
5. StacyAnn
6. Fatima
7. Anya
8. Whitney
9. Katarzyna
10. Amis
11. Dominique

Comparing this call-out order with the second call-out order of other cycles, I’ve discovered these patterns:
– The surviving girl of the bottom 2 (Dominique) has never gone on to be the winner.
– The winner is always in the top 6 of the second call-out, except in the case of Scandaleisha.  (That would be Lauren, Marvita, Aimee, Claire, StacyAnn, or Fatima)
– The second girl called in the second elimination (Marvita) has gone on to win in 1/3 of the previous cycles.
– The first girl called (Lauren) has gone on to the final 3 in 2/3 of the previous cycles.
– The first girl called (Lauren) has never been the next eliminated.
– The surviving girl of the bottom (Dominique) has never been next eliminated, either.

PART 2: CUMULATIVE SCORE
These following stats are all based on the first two photo call-out orders.  The girl called first gets one point, second gets two, third gets three, etc.  Thus it follows that the girl with the lowest average number is in the forerunning of the competition, and the one with the lowest callout average is at the bottom of the competition.

After the second call-out, here are the averages:
1. Lauren (2.5)
2. Claire (3.0)
3. Anya (4.0)*
4. Aimee (4.0)*
5. Marvita (4.5)
6. Whitney (5.5)
7. Fatima (6.0)
8. Stacy Ann (7.0)
9. Katarzyna (8.5)
10. Dominique (10.5)
11. Amis (11.0)

*tied

From using the same formula with previous cycle’s call-out orders, I’ve noticed these patterns:
-The winner is always in the top 5 after the second call-out, except in the case of Scandaleisha (That would be Lauren, Claire, Anya, Aimee, or Marvita)
– The fourth-place girl at this point in the competition (Aimee) has gone on to win in 1/3 of the previous cycles.
– The fourth and fifth-place girls at this point (Aimee & Marvita) have gone on to the final 3 in 5/9 of the previous cycles.
– Neither of the top two girls at this point (Lauren & Claire) has ever been eliminated in the third elimination)

PART 3: PREVIOUS CYCLE COMPARISON
I’ve taken these numbers and compared them with the girls in the previous cycles, to give you an idea of where the girls currently stand.  Next to each C10 model are the names of previous models who had similar averages at this point in the competition.  As you can see, it’s still really anybody’s game at this point, although Katarzyna and Dominique seem to be in the greatest danger of elimination.

StacyAnn = Bre C5*, Joanie C6*, Saleisha C9** (avg 2nd place)
Amis = Brittany C4, Natasha C7*, Bianca C9 (avg 3rd place)
Anya = Nicole C1, Naima C4**, Danielle C6**, Caridee C7**, AJ C7 (avg 4th place)
Aimee (same as Anya’s)
Marvita = Elyse C1*, Adrianne C1**, Mercedes C2*, Kari C6X, Sarah C9 (avg 5th place)
Whitney = Kesse C1, Tatiana C4, Sara C6, Leslie C6, Amanda C7, Renee C8* (avg 5th place)
Lauren = Yaya C3*, Tiffany C4, Michelle C7, Felicia C8, Lisa C9 (avg 6th place)
Claire = Catie C2, Rebecca C4, Jenah C9* (avg 6th place)
Fatima = Robin C1, Shandi C2*, Sara C2, Eva C3**, Amanda C3*, Toccara C3, Kristi C3X, Nicole C5**, Coryn C5, Cassandra C8X (avg 6th place)
Katarzyna = Xiomara C2, Furonda C6, Monique C7X (avg 8th place)
Dominique = Ann C3, Brandy C4X, Sarah C5X (avg 9th place)

*made it to final 3
**winner
X eliminated in following round

PART 4: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
So what does this all mean?

MOST LIKELY TO WIN:
Marvita or Aimee

MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE FINAL 3:
Marvita, Aimee, and Lauren

MOST LIKELY TO BE NEXT ELIMINATED:
Katarzyna or Dominique

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