Fun With Numbers… the Weekly Stats Update

March 15, 2008 at 9:43 pm | Posted in Aimee, Anya, Claire, Dominique, Fatima, Katarzyna, Lauren, Marvita, random thoughts, speculation, StacyAnn, statistics, Whitney | Leave a comment
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It’s once again time for the weekly stats post. Any statistic-haters out there, skip this one.

PART 1: THIRD PHOTOSHOOT
The call-out order for the third photoshoot was as follows:
1. Anya
2. Whitney
3. Katarzyna
4. Claire
5. Dominique
6. Stacey-Ann
7. Lauren
8. Marvita
9. Aimee
10. Fatima

Comparing this call-out order with the third call-out order of other cycles, I’ve discovered these patterns:
– 5th, 8th, and 9th called in the third photoshoot (Dom, Marvita, Aimee) have gone on to win twice each out of the previous nine cycles… not a strong correlation, but still…
– 1st, 4th, and 8th place girls in the third photoshoot (Anya, Claire, Marvita) have gone on to the final three four times each out of the previous nine cycles, which is a somewhat strong correlation, but definitely not a guarantee.
– Never has one of the top four girls in the third photoshoot (Anya, Whitney, Kat, Claire) been eliminated in the next episode.
– The most likely position to be eliminated next? 7th or 10th (Lauren or Fatima)


PART 2: CUMULATIVE SCORE

The following stats are based on the first three photo call-out orders. (See point system explanation in last week’s stat post)
After the third call-out, here are the averages:
1. Anya (3.0)
2. Claire (3.3)
3. Lauren (4.0)
4. Whitney (4.3)
5. Aimee (5.7)*
6. Marvita (5.7)*
7. Stacey-Ann (6.7)**
8. Katarzyna (6.7)**
9. Fatima (7.3)
10. Dominique (8.7)

*tied
**tied

From using the same formula with previous cycle’s call-out orders, I’ve noticed these patterns:
– The 1st, 4th, and 5th place girls at this point (Anya, Whitney, and Aimee) have gone on to win in 2/9 of the previous cycles each
– The 1st place girl at this point (Anya) has gone on to the final three in 2/3 of the previous cycles.
– The 4th place girl at this point (Claire) has gone on to the final three in 4/9 of the previous cycles
– The 1st place girl at this point (Anya) has never been the next girl eliminated

Other notes:
Claire has managed to stay in the top five for the past three photo shoots. This was accomplished previously by Adrianne C1, Mercedes and April C2, Lisa C5, AJ Michelle and Anchal C6, Brittany and Felicia C7, and Jenah Heather Lisa and Sarah C9.
Anya has had two first call-outs in the first three episodes. This was accomplished previously by Shannon C1, Jaslene C8, and Jenah C9 – all girls that made it to the final three.
Dominique and Fatima both were in the bottom two in one of the first three eliminations. The only competitor to ever be in the bottom two in the first three episodes and come back to win it all was Saleisha C9. All other winners have at least made it to the final six before being in the bottom two.
PART III: PREVIOUS CYCLE COMPARISON
Here, I compared the cycle 10 girls’ call-out averages with those of previous cycle girls after the third elimination of their cycles. It should also be noted that (besides Saleisha C9), none of the winners has had a call-out average of less than 5.0 at this point.

Whitney = Kesse C1, Mercedes C2*, Yoanna C2**, Shandi C2*, Yaya C3*, Nicole C3, Nnenna C6, Brooke C6 (avg. 4.0th place)
Claire = Camille C2, Nik C5*, Danielle C6**, Michelle C7, Felicia C8X (avg. 4.4th place)
Aimee = C4, Sara C6, CariDee C7**, Renee C8*, Diana C8 (avg. 4.4th place)
Marvita = (same as Aimee’s)
Stacey-Ann = Nicole C5**, MollieSue C6, Dionne C8 (avg. 4.7th place)
Katarzyna = (same as Stacey-Ann’s)
Lauren = Elyse C1*, Rebecca C4, Lisa C5 (avg. 5.7th place)
Anya = April C2, AJ C7, Lisa C9 (avg. 6.3th place)
Fatima = Jaeda C7, Megg C7X, Jael C8 (avg. 7.3th place)
Dominique = Noelle C4X, Gina C6X, Whitney C8 (avg. 9.3th place)

*final 3
** winner
X eliminated in following round
PART IV: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
So what does this all mean? (Please note: this is just playing with numbers… not necessarily my actual predictions… obviously Aimee wouldn’t be able to win if she didn’t at least make it to the final three!)

MOST LIKELY TO BE NEXT ELIMINATED:
Fatima (followed by Dominique & Lauren)

MOST LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO FINAL 3:
Anya, Marvita, and Claire (followed by Lauren & Aimee)

MOST LIKELY TO WIN:
Aimee (followed by Marvita and Anya)

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