Post-Episode 5 Statistics

March 24, 2008 at 8:20 pm | Posted in Aimee, Anya, Claire, Dominique, Fatima, Katarzyna, Lauren, random thoughts, speculation, spoilers, StacyAnn, statistics, Whitney | Leave a comment
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Stats time!!!

PART 1: FOURTH PHOTO SHOOT
Call-out order for episode 5:
1. Stacey-Ann
2. Dominique
3. Claire
4. Anya
5. Lauren
6. Aimee
7. Katarzyna
8. Fatima
9. Whitney

Patterns found in previous cycles:
– The bottom-two girl not eliminated in the fourth shoot (Whitney) has never gone on to win
– Girls in 3-5th place in the fourth shoot (Claire, Anya, Lauren) most often go on to win (2/9 cycles each)
– Girls in 2nd and 5th place in the fourth shoot (Dominique, Anya) most often go on to the final three
– In 1/3 of the previous cycles, the bottom-two girl not eliminated in the fourth shoot (Whitney) goes on to be eliminated next.

PART 2: CUMULATIVE SCORE
After the fourth elimination, here are the average call-outs:
1 Anya/Claire (3.25)
3 Lauren (4.25)
4 Stacey-Ann (5.25)
5 Whitney (5.5)
6 Aimee (5.75)
7 Katarzyna (6.75)
8 Dominique (7.0)
9 Fatima (7.5)

Patterns found in previous cycles:
– The bottom girl at this point (Fatima) has never gone on to win
– The winner is always in the top seven at this point (Anya, Claire, Lauren, Stacey-Ann, Whitney, Aimee, Katarzyna)
– The 4th place girl at this point (Stacey-Ann) most often goes on to win (4/9 cycles)
– The 3rd place girl at this point (Lauren) has NEVER gone on to win
– The 1st place girl at this point (Anya/Claire) generally makes it to the final three (2/3 cycles), but doesn’t win (only 1/9 cycles)
– The last-place girl at this point (Fatima) is normally next eliminated (5/9 cycles)

Other notes:
Claire has had a top five photo for the first four photo shoots, a feat previous accomplished by Adrianne C1, Mercedes C2, Lisa C5, AJ & Michelle C7, Brittancy C8, Jenah & Lisa C9
Fatima has not had a single top five photo in the first four photo shoots. The only other girls that have made it this far without one are Ambreal & Saleisha C9

PART 3: Previous Contestants
The girls of C10 compared with girls of other cycles at the same point in their respective cycle.

Lauren = Adrianne C1**, Yoanna C2**, Camille C2, Anchal C7 (3.5th place avg)
Anya = Rebecca C4, Nik C5*, Danielle C6**, Heather C9 (4th place avg)
Claire = same as Anya
Fatima = Ann C3, Kim C5, Eugena C7*, Whitney C8, Saleisha C9** (4th place avg)
Stacey-Ann = Eva C3**, Keenyah C4*, Tatiana C4, Nnenna C6 (4.25th place avg)
Aimee = Leslie C6, Melrose C7* (5th place avg)
Katarzyna = Kahlen C4*, Bre C5*, Coryn C5x, MollieSue C6x, Amanda C7 (5.4th pace avg)
Dominique = Xiomara C1x, Norelle C3, Brittany C4, Michelle C4, Jael C8 (5.8th place avg)
Whitney = Robin C1, Sara C2, Catie C2, Toccara C3, Cassie C3, Brooke C6 (6.5th place avg)

PART 4: Putting it all together
Just playing with numbers… not actual predictions!

Most likely to be eliminated next: Fatima (followed by Whitney)

Most likely to make it to the final three: Anya, Lauren, Claire (followed by Aimee & Dominique)

Most likely to win: Stacey-Ann (followed by Claire & Lauren)

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