Post-Episode 6 Stats

March 29, 2008 at 6:10 pm | Posted in Anya, Claire, Dominique, Fatima, Katarzyna, Lauren, speculation, StacyAnn, statistics, Whitney | 1 Comment
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Call-out order for episode 6:
1. Whitney
2. Katarzyna
3. Fatima
4. Lauren
5. Anya
6. Dominique
7. Stacey-Ann
8. Claire

Patterns from previous cycles:
– The bottom girl not eliminated (Claire) has never gone on to win, but often makes it to the final five: Elyse C1, Camille C2, Ann C3, Nik C5, Jade C6.
– One of the girls in the top four of this shoot (Whitney, Katarzyna, Fatima, Lauren) always goes on to win
– The fourth place girl in this shoot (Lauren) has most often gone on to win: Yoanna C2, Nicole C5, Danielle C6, CariDee C7, Jaslene C8
– The first-place girl in this shoot (Whitney) has gone on to the final three in 5 of 9 previous cycles
– The fourth and sixth-place girls in this shoot (Lauren & Dominique) have gone on to the final three in 6 of 9 previous cycles.
– The fifth place girl in this shoot (Anya) has most often been eliminated next, in 5 of the 9 previous cycles.

After the fifth elimination, here are the average call-outs:
1. Anya (3.6)
2. Claire & Lauren (4.2)
4. Whitney (4.6)
5. Stacey-Ann (5.6)
6. Katarzyna (5.8)
7. Fatima (6.6)*
8. Dominique (6.8)*
*no winner has had lower than a 6.2 average at this point in her cycle

Patterns found in previous cycles:
– The winner is always in the top 5 at this point (Anya, Claire, Lauren, Whitney, Stacey-Ann)
– The second-place girl at this point (Claire/Lauren?) most often has gone on to win, in 3 of 9 previous cycles
– The first and second-place girls at this point (Anya, Claire/Lauren?) have gone on to the final three in 5 of 9 previous cycles
– The sixth-place girl at this point (Katarzyna) is most often eliminated next, in 4 of 9 previous cycles
– The second and fifth place girls at this point (Claire/Lauren, Stacey-Ann) have never been the next eliminated.

Other notes:
Anya and Lauren have made it through the first five eliminations without a bottom-four appearance. This feat was previously accomplished by Mercedes & Sara C2, Eva Nicole & Toccara C3, Christina & Tatiana C4, Nik Lisa & Jayla C5, Danielle C6, Michelle C7, Brittany C8, and Jenah C9.
Fatima is the only remaining girl who has not yet had a top-two photo. Other girls to make it this far in their cycle without one: Robin C1, Toccara & Norelle C3, Michelle C4, Bre & Kim C5, Leslie C6, Amanda C7, Sarah & Whitney C8, Chantal & Ambreal C9.

Cycle 10 girls compared with girls of other cycles at this point in their respective cycles.

Anya = Adrianne C1**, April C2, Jayla C5 (avg 3rd place)
Claire = Yoanna C2**, Amanda C3*, Nicole C3 (avg 3.3rd palce)
Lauren = same as Claire’s
Katarzyna = Cassie C3x, Keenya C4*, Nicole C5**, Brooke C6, Amanda C7 (avg 4.8th place)
Stacey-Ann = Catie C2x, Toccara C3, Naima C4**, Kahlen C4*, Tatiana C4 (4.8th place)
Fatima = Michelle C4, Kim C5, Natasha C8* (avg 4.3th place)
Whitney = Sarah C2, Christina C4 (5.5th place)
Dominique = Norelle C3, Sara C8x (6.5th place)
x – next to go
* – top 3
** – winner

By the numbers… not actual predictions!

Most likely to be eliminated next:
Katarzyna (followed by Dominique)

Most likely to make it to the top 3:
Lauren, Claire & Anya (followed by Stacey-Ann & Whitney)

Most likely to win:
Lauren (followed by Anya)


1 Comment »

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  1. haha, I agree about the Nigel-Barker-shoot. what kind of “prize” is that? and “nude” is indeed timeless… LOL. more or less.

    I personally really dislike Dominique’s photo. She’s just not pretty, nor does she look like a model, to me. Well, I guess, you either love or hate her.

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