Week 7 Stats

April 8, 2008 at 3:50 pm | Posted in Anya, Dominique, Fatima, Katarzyna, Lauren, speculation, StacyAnn, statistics, Whitney | Leave a comment

It’s time for our weekly stats update.

Part I: Sixth Photoshoot
1 Fatima
2 Anya
3 Katarzyna
4 Whitney
5 StaceyAnn
6 Dominique
7 Lauren

Patterns from former cycles:
– The bottom girl (Lauren) does not go on to win
– The 2nd and 5th place girls (Anya & Stacey-Ann) most often go on to win
– The winner has always been in the top 5 of this photo shoot (Fatima, Anya, Katarzyna, Whitney, Stacey-Ann) — except for C9
– 2nd place girl (Anya) most often goes on to the final three (6 out of 9 previous cycles)
– The 3rd and 5th place girls (Katarzyna & Stacey-Ann) usually go on to the final three as well (in 5 of 9 previous cycles)
– The 7th place girl (Lauren) is most often eliminated next
– The girl with the top photo (Fatima) of this shoot is never the next eliminated

Part II: Call-Out Averages
1 Anya (3.3)
2 Whitney (4.5)
3 Lauren (4.7)
4 Katarzyna (5.3)
5 Stacey-Ann (5.5)
6 Fatima (5.7)
7 Dominique (6.7)
Patterns from previous cycles:
– The winner is always in the top 5 at this point (Anya, Whitney, Lauren, Katarzyna, Stacey-Ann)
– The winner is USUALLY in the top 3 at this point (Anya, Whitney, Lauren)
– 2nd and 3rd (Whitney & Lauren) are most often in the final three (6 of 9 previous cycles)
– The next out is usually in the bottom three (Stacey-Ann, Fatima, Dominique)

Part III: Previous Contestant Comparison
(compares C10 contestants with previous contestants with the same call-out averages at this point in their own cycle)

Anya = Elyse, Jenah (avg final placement: 3rd)
Katarzyna = Keenyah, Brittany C4, Kahlen (avg 3rd)
Stacey-Ann = Sara C6, Chantal (avg 3rd)

Fatima = Toccara, Tatiana, Nicole C5, Kim C5, Jade, Dionne, Saleisha (avg 4th)
Dominique = Ann, Bianca (avg 4th)

Whitney = Nicole C3, Joanie, Anchal (avg 5th)

Lauren = Sara C2 (avg 6th)

Part IV: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
(not actual predictions… just playing with numbers)

Most likely to win: Anya (followed by Stacey-Ann)

Most likely to be in top 3: Lauren, Anya, and Whitney (followed by Stacey-Ann)

Most likely to be eliminated next: Lauren (followed by Dominique & Stacey-Ann

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